Electric Cars and Solar Power are Not the (whole) Answer

If electric cars and solar power aren't the whole answer, what is the question?

Actually there are two questions.  Mostly on this site, I've tried to address the question "What will it take to stop global warming?"  I've argued that we need to convert to 100% electric cars and 100% renewable energy, just to reduce our CO2 emissions by half.  And that is only half way to where we need to be to cut CO2 in the atmosphere to the safe level of 350 parts per million. (See What Will it Take to Stop Global Warming--the Case for Electric Cars, a paper I co-authored, on this subject)

But here I would like to focus on a second question--"Can electric cars solve the urban transportation problem?" This is a question I focussed on for much of my career as a transportation engineer and city planner.  Here are my thoughts:

The internal combustion engine automobile is extremely successful at increasing personal mobility, and cars will no doubt be around for a long time to come.  Their very success has led to a number of problems, some of which can be solved by electric vehicles, and some of which cannot.  Here is a list of these issues:

Problems that can be solved with electric vehicles and renewable energy:

• Air pollution--internal combustion engines and oil refining increase particulate matter, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and various hazardous toxic air pollutants.   The United Nations Environment program estimates that these pollutants cause nearly 2 million premature deaths per year--UN report on air pollution deaths . 
• Wars for oil--reliance on oil has led to resource driven wars in the middle east, as well as propping up dictators in many countries.  Trillions of dollars and millions of lives are lost in these wars and repression by these dictators. 
• Global Warming--as mentioned above, we can reduce CO2 by half with renewable energy & electric cars.

Problems that cannot be solved with electric vehicles and renewable energy:

• Urban Sprawl--electric cars are so cheap to operate (2-3 cents per mile!) that they could actually increase urbans sprawl with loss of wildlife, farmland, and open space

Levittown, 1950s

• Obesity--as long as people drive door-to-door in their daily lives, they do not get enough exercise to stay trim.  This is a serious health problem
• Auto collisions--traffic safety has improved greatly over the past 100 years, but there are over one million traffic fatalities worldwide every year.
• Traffic congestion--autos are so popular that they clog up highways, many times shortly after they are built in a phenomenon known as "induced traffic demand." Most congestion occurs in the peak hours, i.e. during commute times.

The solutions to the problems of sprawl, obesity, traffic safety, and congestion can all be addressed by building transit oriented developments with walking, biking, and public transit as important means of transportation, and traffic calming measures included in their design.  If people live within walking or biking distance of their workplace, or near a transit route that gets them to work, most of the urban transportation problem is solved.  The automobile will still be important for social activities in the evening and on weekends, but it will not be the only way to get to work or school.  This solution requires that we implement higher density urban developments with the support of activists in the bike, pedestrian, and public transit arenas.

A typical example of this solution are university campus communities where student housing is located close to campus, so autos are not needed and everyone gets exercise by walking and biking.
I feel hopeful that these problems can be solved.  For example, just today I saw a Chevy Volt City Car-Share vehicle in San Francisco.  This is a great solution for urban living--rent a car through a car share program when you need one, and avoid the hassles of paying for parking, maintenance, and insurance.

Also, I was pleased to see the today's Bay Area News Group's Real Estate advertising section lead off with a promotion for the high density Broadway Grand development in Oakland.  The ad says, "It's within walking distance to BART and to Lake Merritt, the Farmer's Market, lots of nightlife, and so many popular restaurants".  The units range from 700 to 2150 square feet--a far cry from the 4,000 to 5,400 square foot homes on 1/3 acre lots advertised elsewhere in the real estate section.  I was also pleased to see that in suburban Milpitas moderate sized homes of 1,200 - 2,000 square feet were advertised "less than a mile from the Milpitas Light Rail Station".  And in even more suburban Rio Vista, homes were advertised with "solar power systems and and energy efficient features to eliminate electric bills."  I doubt if the solar systems are sized large enough to include electric vehicles, but it's still a hopeful sign.

So, no, electric vehicles and solar power don't solve all of these traditional urban planning problems.  But cleaning the air, eliminating the need for oil wars, and helping to stop global warming are more than enough reasons to push full speed ahead for 100% electric cars running on 100% renewable energy.  And we should also work for livable cities that are designed for pedestrians, bicycles, and public transit.